Culture and Life

by Rob Gowland

Spins on history

Futurologists have much the same attitude to the accuracy of their 
predictions as astrologists: if things don't work out as they predicted, 
they just shrug, refer vaguely to "the data available at the time" and move 
on to talk about some other aspect of the future as they see it.

Year end is a time for review, but the new year is a time for looking 
ahead, and although the 20th Century does not actually end until December 
2000, the mass media are determined to write about the next century 
now.

The Sydney Morning Herald got into the act early. 1999 was only two 
days old when the paper ran a lengthy feature article that sought to look 
forward and back at the same time. It was an illuminating article, though 
not perhaps as the author, Deirdre Macken, intended.

Given the meaningless title The Signs They Are A Changin', the 
article was of necessity also given an explanatory subtitle: The ideas 
and attitudes that came and went in the 20th century.

With the aid of "a futurologist, a historian, a curator, a sociologist and 
a pop culture monitor", Ms Macken attempted to recall "the images that will 
forever be remembered as 20th century; those things and events that were 
imbued with the times but will be left behind like the tall powdered wigs 
that were forever stranded in the 18th century".

Ms Macken's list of things that allegedly won't make it into the next 
century is frequently fatuous: Big Macs, an "institution that helped 
homogenise the world" will be replaced with local versions according to 
sociologist Joanne Finkelstein, although she says "McDonald's systems will 
live on."

Surely replacing Big Macs with "local versions" runs entirely counter to 
McDonald's globalised marketing strategy?

Of greater moment, and given pride of place as the first major 
"institution" that "came and went" with the 20th century is Communism.

"In 100 years of isms, from secularism to pacifism, from fascism to nudism, 
there were a few that grabbed the world's imagination, that changed forever 
our way of thinking but, having served their purpose, will fade with the 
century", says Ms Macken.

She then quotes Richard Waterhouse, cultural historian at Sydney 
University, who puts a very curious spin on 20th century history. 
Communism, according to Waterhouse, didn't just change the society and 
economy of countries that embraced it "but had enormous impact in 
generating political and social conservatism across the world.

"If you challenged the orthodoxy, you were painted as a Communist and this 
served to entrench conservatism everywhere." Now there's a bit of twisted 
thinking!

So there you have it: Communism has "served its purpose" and will now "fade 
with the century". Wanna bet?

* * *

Actually, the future predicted by Ms Macken's experts is a pretty gloomy 
place for ordinary people. Among the things that will not survive far into 
the next century is lunch (which will apparently go the way of tea ladies, 
because the boss will not pay you while you eat).

The vision of these futurologists is a world where you are on-call to your 
employer seven days a week (and probably 24 hours a day), where only the 
wealthy can have a house with a lawn (or presumably a garden) and care of 
it will be contracted out.

Similarly, the kitchen will disappear as overworked families rely on home-
delivered meals from private caterers.

It will be a world of hi-tech wars using "smart" missiles with troops used 
as police rather than as soldiers. Unemployment will be a permanent part of 
life. 

Some of the predictions serve to demonstrate that the people making them 
don't know why certain phenomena exist in the first place.

Phil Ruthven, chief of IBIS Business Information, says confidently that 
"unions and employer bodies will will either cease to exist or evolve into 
different entities". He wishes!

Mr Ruthven further opines that "the term `employee' will disappear in the 
same way that serfdom and slavery disappeared. The concept of being even 
partly owned by an employer will go."

The last part of that statement, which appears to imply that everyone will 
be "their own boss", is just flannel, but the first part is spot on, though 
I doubt that Mr Ruthven realises exactly how accurate it is.

Slavery and serfdom, to put them in the proper historical sequence, 
disappeared as the result of great social revolutions, that overthrew the 
rule of the previous ruling class. And that is what will also happen to 
capitalism, ending forever the rule of capitalist employers: their 
"employees" will cease to be employees and become instead the new ruling 
class.

But that's a lesson Mr Ruthven and Ms Macken have yet to learn: history is 
made by the people and it is the people's aspirations that are noticeably 
lacking in Ms Macken's futurology.