Indian elections:
A majority, but no stability

by Harkishan Singh Surjeet

In the elections to India's national parliament, the Lok Sabha, the BJP-led 
alliance has come back to power, based on a slender majority. The BJP-led 
government elected in the 1998 elections, was the first Indian national 
government dominated by communal [anti-secular — Hindu fundamentalist] 
forces. A precarious alliance, it fell after 13 months when one of the 
BJP's partners, the AIADMK, withdrew support.

In the new elections, held over the last few weeks, the BJP alliance, 
unable to fight on either achievements or issues, relied on promoting the 
personality of Prime Minister AB Vajpayee, as opposed to [Congress'] Sonia 
Gandhi, as though the whole election was confined to a contest between the 
two.

US imperialism was interested in seeing the BJP make a comeback. So were 
large sections of big business. Although earlier governments also pursued 
economic policies beneficial to big business and multinationals, the BJP 
opened the floodgates for multinational corporations.

In the realm of foreign policy too, the BJP-led government's policies made 
a complete reversal with a definite tilt towards US imperialism. Even 
relations with neighbours which had improved during the tenure of the 
United Front Government deteriorated after the BJP assumed power.

When US imperialism was trying to impose its hegemony all over the world, 
in the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, instead of 
playing a role in defence of the Non-Aligned Movement and resistance to 
imperialism, the BJP Government started succumbing to US pressures.

The new government has a majority of seats, but not of votes. But major 
bourgeois political parties have not found proposal of the CPI(M) and the 
Left for introducing electoral reforms acceptable.

During the elections, the BJP made unprecedented use of the electronic and 
print media to its advantage, issuing misleading propaganda, including 
opinion and exit polls falsely showing them to be sweeping the elections.

The actual results have not shown any gains at all for the BJP. If anything 
the BJP's total tally has come down marginally. But some of its regional 
allies have done well and increased the combined strength of the alliance.

The tally of the Congress has gone down further. From 141 in the last Lok 
Sabha they have been reduced to 112. Had not the NCP split away from the 
Congress the results of the Lok Sabha elections would have been different. 
The Congress and the NCP together have won 134 seats, ten more than the 
BJP-SS.

As opposed to the Congress and allies, the Left has also come down. The two 
Communist parties, the CPI(M) and the CPI won 40 seats between them, the 
CPI(M) maintaining its position at 32.

This victory of the BJP-led alliance should not lead the people to believe 
that the period of instability is over and a stable regime has been put in 
place.

The very fact that the BJP has been unable to improve upon its tally even 
marginally, whereas that of its allies has gone up (in some cases 
considerably), means the BJP will be much more precariously placed.

The increased strength of its allies gives them more bargaining power and 
more leverage. Many of these parties will be forced to oppose the pursuit 
of the Hindutva agenda by the BJP in government.

Most of them represent regional aspirations and their outlook and 
perceptions come in conflict with the positions of the BJP. But at the same 
time these parties have, by opting to go for an alliance with the BJP, 
invited the danger of the communal virus spreading in their respective 
states.

Will the allies accept the orientation of the pro-monopoly, pro-big 
business economic policies of the BJP? Though many of them agree with the 
BJP, they will find the going difficult once the burden of these policies 
falls on the common people and their mass support starts eroding.

One ally of the BJP, the INLD, has already expressed opposition to the 40 
percent hike in the price of diesel. This is just the beginning and many 
more such instances are bound to arise in the future, unless the BJP is 
willing to radically change the orientation of its economic policy, which 
is unlikely.

The economic policies that the BJP-led alliance government will pursue, 
which will blatantly favour the multinationals and big business and impose 
burdens on the common people, will provide the Left, democratic and secular 
forces the opportunity to mobilise the people.

The secular forces should also be vigilant to foil all attempts that the 
BJP and its allies like the Shiv Sena will make to pursue their own 
Hindutva agenda.

The Left will have to play a much bigger role in mobilising the broader 
sections of the people in defending the interests of the people and in 
defence of the interests of the minorities.

* * *

People's Democracy, paper of the Communist Party of India (M)

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