The climate bomb

Associate Professor of Climatology, Dr Tapeshwar Singh, visited 
Australia recently to attend the International Congress of Biometerology 
and the International Conference of Urban Climatology. Peter Symon 
interviewed him, on behalf of The Guardian, about climate change and its consequences .

Peter Symon: How many countries were represented at these 
conferences?

Dr Tapeshwar Singh: More than one hundred countries participated.

PS: There was little or no coverage of these meetings in the 
Australian mass media. Given the widespread interest and the importance of 
this question, how do you explain the fact that the media did not cover it?

TS: It is very disappointing because the questions of climate and 
environmental change are getting high attention all over the globe and not 
only among scientists.

In the near future this aspect of the environment has to be investigated 
otherwise the survival of mankind will be put to the test but I do not know 
why the mass media in Australia has not properly covered the conferences.

PS: Have scientists generally reached any conclusion about climate 
change? Is it now confirmed that the world is warming?

TS: Yes! But warming is not the only aspect of climate change. Other 
aspects are also there but the highest body, the Intergovernment Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC), and most of the countries in the world are involved 
in making the policies, assessment, what will be the impact, forecasting 
the consequences and checking reports.

In '96 the IPCC already stated categorically that climate change is 
happening and will happen.

PS: Is that change generally described as "warming"?

TS: Yes! It is warming. Major indicators over the last 100 years 
show that global temperature has increased by half a degree Centigrade.
Given current trends of increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse
gases, carbon dioxide in particular, it may warm by another one to
three-and-a-half degrees Centigrade by the year 2080.

The last four years have been the hottest in the long history of climate. 
The hottest year was 1998.

It is true that global warming is of high concern when we see overall 
climate change.

PS: There was recently a devastating cyclone on the East coast of 
India and we are now hearing of and seeing on the TV many floods, droughts, 
cyclones in many countries. Do these events mean that the changes taking 
place in the world's climate are significant?

TS: Yes! The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has already 
predicted and assessed that climate change will lead to extreme weather 
events.

For example, drought, cyclone, extreme floods, these kind of events will 
increase not only in frequency but will cover more area and will increase 
in intensity, will be more destructive. Natural disasters will increase.

PS: We are already hearing reports of an increase in sea-levels. 
What could this bring to many people?

TS: Yes! It will have catastrophic consequences. Sea level changes 
are related to climate change, that is, global warming.

If the temperature goes up, naturally the ice cover of the Arctic and 
Antarctica and snowy peaks in the high mountains will melt and naturally 
they will raise the level of the sea.

If sea level is raised by about one metre, about 15 per cent of the world 
population maybe inundated. Sea water will cover literal areas and 
particularly the survival and existence of island states will be 
threatened.

That's why Hawaii, Fiji and many such islands have expressed serious 
concern about global climate change and its consequences maybe leading to 
the non-existence of such island states.

PS: Do you think the possibility of a rise of one metre of the 
oceans of the world is an exaggeration or is it a real possibility?

TS: It will maybe take a long time. It is not necessary that we will 
see a rise of one metre in the next 10 or 20 years. Some scientists have 
also contested this view.

They say that if there is global warming there will be melting of snow on 
the one hand and on the other, due to higher temperatures, there will be 
high evaporation also and that the climate will adjust.

But the majority of the scientists in the world, particularly the 
international scientific community in each field, believe that climate 
change will lead to a rise in the oceans.

There is apprehension about the inundation of the island states and cities 
and the population living along coasts throughout the world.

PS: What in your opinion are the main causes of global warming?

TS: Although climatic changes have taken place in the past — on 
four occasions major climate changes have taken place — these have been 
periods of glaciation and de-glaciation — and man was not instrumental and 
was not responsible for those changes.

But it has to be said that in the recent past — about 200 years, there is 
a very rapid growth of population and rapid destruction of natural 
resources. This has created a situation where global forest areas have been 
significantly reduced and this will affect the climate.

PS: Do you have any statistics on the amount of forests that have 
been cut down around the world?

TS: There are many reports. There are reports that about one third 
of the forest land in the world has been degraded or cutdown during the 
last 150 years.

If we take the example of India's plain where only 200 years back 57 per 
cent of the Ganges plain was under forest but at present it is less that 14 
per cent.

If you go by only three districts near the national capital region of 
Delhi, only one per cent is under forest. Fifty-six per cent has been lost 
to transport networks, industrialisation, built up areas, etc.

PS: Is the destruction of forest areas a greater contributing factor 
to global warming than the burning of coal, motor vehicles?

TS: The reduction of forest areas will have very serious 
repercussions on the climatic and environmental conditions of the globe.

Earlier, people would say that where there is forest there is cloud, there 
is rain, there is water. Where the forest is cut down it leads to erosion 
and the sort of changes we are facing today.

PS: Are we now facing a situation in which the world has passed a 
point of no return. Is it possible to wind back the clock to a few hundred 
years ago.

TS: No, it is impossible now because of the rapid increase in the 
population of the planet as a whole and pressure on all the natural 
resources.

What we have already started and destroyed we cannot restore. We do not 
have any technology, we do not have any capacity to restore it.

For example, due to erosion the top soil has already been carried to the 
oceans and cannot be taken back again. The same is the case with wind 
erosion. There are regions being eroded by wind action.

But if we have the foresight we can reduce the destruction, we can reduce 
the rapacious exploitation of natural resources. One must leave something 
for coming generations otherwise our children and grand-children will not 
even have the opportunity to see it. That is happening.

PS: What you are suggesting is a rather doomsday scenario. Are we 
facing a situation which is now beyond repair and therefore we are going to 
face more and more climatic catastrophes?

TS: Certainly. More catastrophes. But we should not be completely 
disappointed. We should be optimistic also. Nature has sometimes its own 
processes of adjustment, it readjusts.

But so far man's action on the environment is so alarming and to an extent 
beyond which it may not be suitable for the survival of human kind.

I hope we will take some suitable measures for optimum utilisation and not 
the present rapacious exploitation without thinking of the consequences. We 
should be very cautious in dealing with nature and protect the life support 
systems.

PS: What has to be done specifically to stop this process or slow it 
down?

TS: I feel every action has a reaction. Globally and at national 
level there are some mistakes in planning strategy. We do not have optimum 
planning, we have this exploitation of the natural resources but if we plan 
our economy and minimise the consumerist approach we are not going to face 
the doom we expect from these changes.

PS: Given that we are dealing with the tremendous power wielded by 
transnational corporations and governments which are not persuaded about 
planning do you think it necessary to have a look at these questions as 
well — who is running the economy and for what purpose?

TS: Yes, definitely geo-politics are very much involved and related 
to the environmental changes. I have just been to Newcastle and was told by 
one of my professor colleagues that there was a big iron factory closed 
only a fortnight ago and about 800 workers have become jobless.

I asked why this factory closed? He replied that this is the policy of 
displacement of pollution from the developed countries to the developing 
countries and to mitigate the pollution.

I feel that these tactics will not help because so far as the environment 
is concerned the world has become global.

If one creates problems in Australia or in India or in the US or England, 
that contributes to the overall environmental conditions which humankind 
has to face around the globe.

I understand from some literature that this multi-national corporation and 
big industrialists are more concerned with their benefits and less 
concerned with the welfare of society.

In that situation they exploit resources rapaciously only for the sake of 
their benefit and not for the benefit of all. They further aggravate the 
situation and do not help to mitigate it.

PS: Are the agreements made at Kyoto environmental conference in 
Japan enough and are they being implemented?

TS: Broadly we can say that it is being implemented but so far many 
of the countries are not going to abide by the declaration.

Their plea is that those who have made the major contribution to the global 
destruction of the environment have come from the developed, highly 
industrialised countries and they must mitigate it. Polluters must pay.

It is not the developing countries that are the main polluters or 
destroyers of the environment. So why should they pay. They are not going 
to abide by it. But overall I feel the declaration will have a positive 
impact on the global environment.

PS: Is there an environmental movement in India?

TS: Yes! In India there is an environmental movement and there are 
many societies, voluntary organisations, NGOs and they are working for the 
protection of the environment but sometimes what happens in my country, 
particularly, is that politics come into play. Sometimes people oppose the 
construction of dams, roads and the building of cities, railway lines, etc.

I feel however, that the movement is not well organised but they have some 
influence and sometimes they do some very good and constructive work.

People are getting concerned about the environmental degradation. The 
movement is there.

PS: Do you have any other question or aspect that you would like to 
convey to the readers of The Guardian?

TS: Thank you very much for this question. I have talked enough and 
I would like to convey that we must preserve the environment, preserve the 
climate, ultimately preserving our life.

It should be given the highest priority in all countries whether developed 
or developing. It is not the business of only rich countries and neither 
the concern of the poor only. It is of global concern and we should take it 
globally.

PS: Do you think that climate change is as dangerous for life on 
earth as nuclear weapons?

TS: Yes. It is as dangerous as nuclear weapons. Climate change can 
be treated as exploded if it has a drastic impact on the life of society. 
If the world climate is changed and the carbon dioxide component is 
increased beyond the quantity that can be absorbed by humankind — then it 
will become a bomb.

The entire humankind, even all bio-organisms will be finished on this 
planet earth. It will take some time but it will become an atom bomb if it 
is not mitigated.