Burma: suspicious motives

Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the pro-democracy movement in Burma was 
freed last week after months of house arrest.

After 18 months of what were called confidence-building talks with the 
military leadership, Ms Aung San Suu Kyi said, "the next step is 
discussions about policy".

She warned her party, the National League for Democracy,: "My release 
should not be looked at as a major breakthrough for democracy".

Suu Kyi offered no specific ideas about what sort of policies will be 
discussed but said that her task now was to do "everything I can to make 
sure that democracy comes to Burma".

The economic situation in Burma has been described as being on the brink of 
collapse — there is very little electricity and power cuts can be as long 
as six hours a day; inflation is running at 60 per cent a year; few 
medicines are available. The main concern for many people is their day-to-
day survival.

Burma is one of the most resource-rich countries in Asia but is on the 
United Nations' "least-developed" nations list.

The military junta has not said anything about the democratisation process 
or whether they would hand over the power to those who were elected during 
the 1990 elections.

There is nothing to suggest that domestic and international pressures 
should be relaxed either at this stage.

The junta have long had plans in reserve to make cosmetic reforms that it 
could present as "democratisation.

There are a number of possible scenarios.

The first is an attempt by the junta to co-opt Ms Aung San Suu Kyi as a 
token figurehead while real power remains with the military.

Another is that Ms Aung San Suu Kyi continues to press for genuine 
democratic reform, as her most recent public declarations would indicate. 
This would inevitably bring a new crackdown from the regime and bring it 
into conflict with the mass of the population.

The outcome would very much depend on the organisation, strength and 
determination of the popular movements.

A representative of the Communist Party of Burma, which is still to issue 
an official statement, also raised the question of the US's role in Burma's 
politics.

"If they could stretch their military camps along Afghanistan, Nepal and 
Burma, China's southern border will be seriously threatened."

Reuter's report that Colonel Kyaw Thein of the Burmese army is to visit 
Washington from May 13-17 despite the fact that the US has a ban on visits 
by Burmese military representatives.